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Etsy, Tilray, and Athenex



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RECAP OF LAST WEEK AND RESULTS:


Square: We called for it to go past $245 this week and it went to $272.97.

We alerted our premium subscribers for a call option this Monday. It would have returned over 100%


Walmart: We called for it to move to $151.40 from $144, we got the right direction but slightly overshot its price, expecting upward movement from it this weekend.


Aurinia Pharmaceuticals: We called it to move to $17 from $15.75. It stayed flat this week, the price is waiting for news of buyout or prescription numbers to be released. They moved their earnings up one week early. Could be a sign of positive news ahead.


IN THIS ISSUE


Etsy

Earnings run-up expected, growth in their space is expected as well. Pinterest correlates.


Tilray

Recreational Marijuana legalized? Retail Investors start moving markets to other places.


Athenex

FDA approval of breast cancer drug anytime from now until February 28th.


Etsy: ETSY

Etsy is an online marketplace where artists, inventors, entrepreneurs can sell their handcrafted goods. Etsy takes a small percentage of each component of the sale. They make money when someone lists an item and then take a percentage on the transaction. Many people are starting to use this service in the pandemic. It seems that there is no slowing right now as many have become independent of an employer and are making a living by making goods and selling them on Etsy.


Price Forecast

Current Price: $232

One Week Target: $240

One Month Target: $265-280

One Year Target: $200


The stock price is in an uptrend and we expect it to keep running to around $240 before earnings. One interesting correlating business that just had their earnings is Pinterest. This company did extremely well and crushed their earnings. We think Etsy and Pinterest have similar business models so we are using that as our edge going into earnings. We think Etsy has more of an edge because Pinterest relies on using targeted advertising, while Etsy has targeted advertising and alternate methods to create cash for the business.


Long term, we think this price will come down from Etsy’s highs and sit near $200, the market is stretched and we think it will return down by mid-year 2021.


This is a buy-in our opinion before earnings. We look to sell before earnings to reduce our risk.


Click Here for an Option Idea


Tilray : TLRY

Tilray is a global leader in cannabis research, cultivation, processing, and distribution.” Tilray has been on the stock market since July 19, 2018, and it reached a high of $148. However, that did not last as the stock price dropped back down to $4 a share over a few months. Now Tilray and other cannabis stocks were in the spotlight this past week as Reddit decided its next move would be to the cannabis sector. The stock price increased 102.50% in the last month and reached a high of $63.80 before moving back down and finishing at $29.30


Price Forecast

Current Price: $29.66

One Week Target: $23-24

One Month Target: $30

One Year Target: $50


The reason we are writing about this stock is the potential for these companies to grow. “The day traders behind GameStop Corp.’s meteoric rise last month are turning their attention to cannabis stocks, betting that President Biden’s administration will push for further decriminalizing the drug.” We think there is a good chance of getting cannabis legalized at the federal level which would cause these stocks like Tilray to go up. But just like any company, you have good ones and bad ones. We think Tilray could be a huge winner down the road.


Tilray will report their 4th quarter earnings on February 17th after hours which should give us a better look at the company. They also got a deal for medical usage in the U.K. Keep an eye on the stock this week to see if it pulls back more. We are looking to buy into some positions and plan to hold them for 5 years. Upside potential is high (pun intended) in the cannabis sector and if the United States does legalize a large price jump may be seen in the stock value when that occurs.


“Total revenue of $51.4 million ( C$68.1 million ) was flat compared to the third quarter of 2019. Cannabis segment revenue decreased 11% to $31.4 million” However Tilray and Aphria have agreed to merge in 2021 and stay under the ticker TLRY. Aphria has been showing more and more promise as numbers are increasing.

This stock is a buy-in our opinion.


Click Here for an Option Idea


Athenex: ATNX

Athenex is a company that is looking to cure cancers. They have a moderately wide pipeline of drugs being researched at the moment for cancers. One of their drugs has already been approved. It is a topical skin cancer cream.


The big news surrounding Athenex is that they have a drug looking to treat metastatic breast cancer. If approved by the FDA on or before February 28th, patients will have access to an oral medication rather than using IVs to treat their breast cancer. This could increase the share price of the company to over 20+ assuming that the drug could bring in revenues of over 1 billion a year. The company has 100 Million in cash, and are currently making revenue each year off of their topical skin cancer treatment drug.


Price Forecast

Current Price: $13.10

One Week Target: $15

One Month Target: $20

One Year Target: $30


Current Highlights:

  • PDUFA for Oral Paclitaxel which treats Metastatic Breast Cancer targeted Feb 28th

  • FDA gave positive feedback for Phase 3 trial design

  • Phase 3 showed superior results for Oral Paclitaxel compared to IV Paclitaxel

  • Treatment could allow in-home treatment vs. Hospital-based treatments - good for the COVID environment

  • Over 100M in cash and other nondilutive arrangements

  • Will receive a 50M milestone payment upon FDA approval

  • Has a team of Medical Science Liaisons and others ready to launch commercialization

  • Perceptive, Blackrock, and other large institutional investors

Source: clankclank - Stocktwits


We are buying this now as it has dropped to a low price from its 52-week highs. Expecting a large increase in share price if the drug is approved. To around $21-26 a share. We are parking some shares in this one as we believe they will receive approval.


Click Here for an Option Idea


Thanks for joining us. If you find this information helps you, please share it with someone else! It will help us out greatly.

Until next week,

Brad Mitchell

Colby McCoy

and the Optifinancial Team

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