Updated: Mar 24
Link to call here - Details below - Every other Wednesday night
Note: This itinerary will be updated.
I will start the call discuss updates & thoughts on the Progenity & then open the floor up to questions and comments.
03.23.22 | Q4 Earnings & Product Lines
A quick thanks to everyone! Sorry if I missed you.
Do not go into earnings expecting anything!
Things to look for:
Cashburn - looking for a reduction to 33 million for the quarter.
Avero Labs sale for 10.9 Million - interested in the details regarding what assets were transferred. Did they alleviate more debt in the deal?
Confirmation of the Closing of the 90 million dollar offering (opened Q4 November 22nd)
Cash on hand (Cash/ Cash equivalents) - A way to tell instantly if they had closed that offering is cash on hand is much higher than 50-70 million
Preecludia Update Expectations- Watermarked - pre-approval - has sent stock on a higher trajectory
Sera Prognostics - A good comparator to Preecludia?
DDS Update expectations -
OBDS update expectations -
Social Trends: Reddit and google
Peak interest (below) was on November 17th. We have maintained 10% of that interest. Also google trends does not show the last 3 days. We have to wait to see the pick up, however, in my reddit traffic, I see that there already has been a substantial pickup in interest. The red line shows where I am projecting the interest to be at when google populates the data. We should be able to see it by Saturday.
Price target for next week (not financial advice but my honest guess): $3-6 after partnership licensing update with Preecludia. Any updates on their oral product lines regarding furthering partnerships with Large pharma or Ionis will have a strong impact on price as well.
I also think if they show that they have closed their offering of 90 million, this will be a longer term upward trend.
03.09.2022 | A change in the air
I will talk about Preecludia, Natera, other processes which will bring Progenity to commercialization of their Oral tech.
Traffic coming into r/PROG_Progenity
Above shows the recent uptick in interest which seems to be accelerating. In 3 days the page views have risen from 3.5k to over 21k.
The obvious reasons for this uptick are the licensing updates on Preecludia.
Natera (NTRA) - sued Progenity over innatal assay 2 - had a short report from Hidenburg, they dropped 40%.
The H. Burg report claimed that:
1. Billing compliance was not good
2. The New York times article scathing their maternal testing.
Regardless Natera did sue Progenity and they came to a joint settlement before going any further in court. This means that we should be aware. I think this is a neutral piece of news for now.
Natera did make a rebuttal as well in a press release here
Preecludia update: licensing 1st quarter
The stock has come down! It sits at $1.24. And this time I think the market is so focused on what they cannot control (macromarket factors) that another great buying opportunity has appeared. (Not giving investment advice)
PGN-600 Tofacitinib for the DDS platform is a full go.
PGN-001 Adalimumab is most likely on hold until outcome of the trials between Alvotech and 2023 patent expiration for generics.
Likely that if Alvotech wins the lawsuit, Progenity will be Abbvie's best bet to continue dominance with their drug.
Preecludia - WHEN??? Answer: Sometime in March with a licensing update
Possibly embargo lift on their final data before then. Watching for patent movement.
I think by End of March we see the stock above $3.
Competitors news: Rani therapeutic unveils a high capacity pill
Institutions: are currently nibbling and researching the company. Their time horizon spans. I believe they are waiting for factual signs of a turnaround before committing more investment to the company
A list below, showing the only time hedge funds sold was during the November spike to $6 a share. When you buy something, it makes you obligated to research it. This is why they do this.
Abstract 1: Patients using progenity's DDS with Tofacitinib (Pfizer's drug) may be able to go off of steroids. This is big news. This can be garnered from the Abstract 1 and a recent insight from the head scientist who spoke to @ecom471 about this being a possibility.
Abstract 2: 30% of the Ulcerative colitis population ($2.5 billion) does not respond to Adalimumab, nor some of the other drugs. This study found a possible link to fixing this issue by tweaking the drug to isolate a cytokine. This alone would bring in $2.5 billion in revenue a year with little to no competition.
Abstracts, actual posters will be produced in February after the speakers present.
Details of the abstracts below:
Shows first time response in the colon using Tofacitinib, also they found a marker that they can use to track efficacy.
Shows that for patients who respond to adalimumab and inflixumab have response, however, they need to do more research and fine tune the study further.
Introduction & Succinct Overview of Progenity's Products 7:00-7:25 pm
Quick 1 Slide sell sheet:
Update to schedule for their programs:
DDS function in dogs below:
More on the abstract for tofacitinib - here - showed a postive response, more research needs to be done.
Adalimumab (Humira) in mice below:
Ionis-Pfizer 2b topline results - Demonstrates why they are probably partnering with Progenity
Subcutaneous is a lower blood supply area which means slower transport of drug to diffuse to body.
OBDS delivers into the jejunum which is a high blood supply zone, blood moves through body faster which may allow Ionis to use their drugs (60 billion industry by 2031) with Progenity
OBDS Iohexal delivery - from the corporate bioconnect presentation
Brad Mitchell Optifinancialnews.com
ECCO Website here Mid January - 2 poster presentations over Tofacitinib & humira drug concentration
Progenity's press release link here
The data that legitimizes their product. Physics does not lie, the tighter the area, the more light that should enter the detector. Their data matches.
OBDS | DDS | PIL DX | RSS
15% bio with initial product- 2022 - PK/PD data December PK/PD <- watch
JetCap comparison (they claim 50% bioavailability!!!) - compares and illustrates jet stream
Competition Overview (Look at Rani) 1.4 Billion as of writing, Prog valued at .44 Billion
Topics/Pictures from and submissions from the community (will update more if you send me after the call)
For the DDS:
Chron's and Colitis 360 Journal Publication as promised from the call
Research and findings from Mr Good Advisor Twitter - (@ChrisMaster700)
William Sandborne - a board member who is the leader in GI tract diseases has multiple connections to Pfizer, Abbvie (which are the rumoured partners/suitors) :
Pictures of screenshots below:
Pfizer connections of the Progenity Board member: