Search

Stocks Picks January 3rd, 2021 | TSLA, AMZN, FVRR, NIO, APPN



We're on TikTok!

Check out Brad's latest video with this week's stock picks.

@optifinancial

#wealth #stockmarket #optitunities



Our Mission: We want to make the world a wealthier and more optimistic place!

Happy New year!

Last Week's Recap

Last week’s recap on our weekly target picks: 4 out of 5 were correct.

S&P 500 ETF

We called it to $374 - reached $374.66

Tesla

We called it to $690 - reached $715

Amazon

We called it to $3,250 - reached $3,344, and now at $3,251

Lululemon

We called it to $355 - reached $355 exactly, but now below at $348

Crispr

We called it to $180 - missed it $156


In this Issue

Tesla

Slightly missed deliveries (not by much). May see it run down this week to $650

Amazon

Great entry point after the price went from $3,188 to $3,344 back to $3,244

Appian

Long term buy

Nio

NIO DAY January 9th

Fivver

Earnings February 17th, good outlook for 2021.

Tesla : TSLA

Tesla is a vertically integrated EV auto manufacturing company. They are the leaders in autonomous driving, battery technology for cars, and even solar panels.

Price Forecast:

Current Price: $700

One Week Target: $650

One Month Target: $600

One Year Target: $1000

Tesla released its delivery numbers on how many cars they sold and produced this year on Saturday. They slightly missed their target of 500,000 cars. They delivered 499,550, which is incredible for the company as they are accelerating production.

Tesla Yearly results

Investors should be wary this week as profit-taking may occur. This year the stock price has skyrocketed up 750%. From what I have seen from feeds such as Stocktwits and Twitter, many people are buying it because it will keep going up. Stock prices continue to surge for many reasons, such as FOMO (fear of missing out) and non-fundamental catalysts. Examples of this are S&P 500 inclusion, and arguably, stock splits which could allow people to buy the stock at a psychologically lower level. I believe in 2021, investors may rethink the actual valuation of the company. As people move from being ecstatic and taking profits, we should see a steep drop in the stock price.

It is argued that Tesla is much more than an auto manufacturer, which I believe is true. They have shown expertise in all areas and are now even capturing the mining aspect of lithium so they can control it on their supply chain. However, they are stretched so far in stock price, that the valuation is looking 10 years into the future. I do not believe this will be sustained much longer, as 2021 will be the year of valuation post-pandemic. In the long term, they still have the most dominant presence as an EV manufacturer and are on track to produce 1 million cars next year. Check this video out to see a Youtuber who has been covering this stock and what his thoughts are. He has slightly different thoughts than me which may be a good perspective.



Sell Tesla short term. Buy Tesla Long term


Options Trade idea:

Put Debit Spread on TSLA

BUY February 12th $677.50 Put

SELL February 12th $600.00 Put

See it in Option Profits Calculator


Entry Cost: $2,843.00 (net debit) see details

Maximum Risk: $2,843.00 at a price of $677.52 at expiry

Maximum Return: $4,907.00 at a price of $600.00 at expiry

Breakevens at Expiry: $649.08


This stock could drop rapidly more than 15% from its current price. This graph shows how you could profit from the price dropping.



Amazon : AMZN

Amazon.com is a vast Internet-based enterprise that sells books, music, movies, housewares, electronics, toys, and many other goods, either directly or as the middleman between other retailers and Amazon.com's millions of customers.”


Price Forecast:

Current Price: $3,250

One Week Target: $3,400

One Month Target: $3,750

One Year Target: $4,200


Amazon has kept a flat price of around $3,250 for about 5 months. This company is growing and always reinvests in its company, which is helpful for growth and innovation for future disruption. ARK has been buying Amazon.


Options Trade idea:

Call Debit Spread on AMZN

BUY April 16th $3500.00 Call

SELL April 16th $3650.00 Call

See it in Option Profits Calculator


Entry Cost: $4,210.00 (net debit) see details

Maximum Risk: $4,210.00 at a price of $3,500.00 at expiry

Maximum Return: $10,790.00 at a price of $3,650.00 at expiry

Breakevens at Expiry: $3542.10


There should be a run-up to its all-time high ~$3,500 before earnings. Close the position before earnings on January 28th.



Fiverr : FVRR

Fiverr's mission is to change how the world works together. Fiverr connects businesses with freelancers offering digital services in 300+ categories. Fiverr provides services such as web design, logo design, and digital marketing as well as many other services. Fiverr is up 716% this year! Absolutely insane return on a stock. Their ability to turn their business profitable is the main reason for this success and there does not seem to be any sign of slowing down.”


Price Forecast:

Current Price: $196.00

One Week Target: $200-205

One Month Target: $210

One Year Target: $280-300


Fiverr will report their earnings on February 17th and I expect them to beat expectations again this time. Revenue in the third quarter of 2020 was $52.3 million, an increase of 88% year over year. Active buyers as of September 30, 2020, grew to 3.1 million, compared to 2.3 million as of September 30, 2019, an increase of 37% year over year. A strong quarter 3 also shows me the company is still moving in a great direction. I see upside with our current situations regarding COVID-19.


Fiverr is a BUY.


Options Trade Idea:

Put Credit Spread on FVRR

SELL January 15th $195.00 Put

BUY January 15th $190.00 Put

See it in Option Profits Calculator


Entry Cost: $240.00 (net credit) see details

Maximum Risk: $260.00 at a price of $190.00 at expiry

Maximum Return: $240.00 at a price of $195.00 at expiry

Breakevens at Expiry: $192.60


Expecting a run-up in the stock price past $200 this week.



Nio: NIO

Nio is an electric vehicle company based in China. Nio has had an insane year, running up almost 1100%. Their earnings report is getting better each quarter as well. “Total revenues were RMB4,526.0 million (US $666.6 million) in the third quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 146.4% from the third quarter of 2019 and an increase of 21.7% from the second quarter of 2020.” Now on January 9th, Nio is expected to come out with improvements to their battery that could increase the driving range. This is not a sure thing but the hype around electric vehicles, in general, should drive the price up this week leading up to the event.


Price Forecast:

Current Price: $48.98

One Week Target: $52.50

One Month Target: $55.00

One Year Target: $75.00


NIO IS A BUY


Options Trade Idea:

Put Credit Spread on NIO

Sell January 8th $48.50 Put

Buy January 8th $45.00 Put

See it in Option Profits Calculator


Entry Cost: $158.00 (net credit) see details

Maximum Risk: $192.00 at a price of $45.00 at expiry

Maximum Return: $158.00 at a price of $48.50 at expiry

Breakevens at Expiry: $46.92


If the price goes above $50, we may see it increase to $53-55



Appian : APPN

Appian Corporation is a cloud computing company currently headquartered in Mclean, Virginia, part of the Dulles Technology Corridor. The company sells a Platform as a Service for building enterprise software applications. It is focused on low-code development, business process management, and case management markets. Cloud computing is becoming more and more profitable as we move more and more digital. Appian is up 319% this year and “a) Cloud Subscription Revenue was $34.3m in Q3 2020, growth of 40% over Q3 2019, b) Subscriptions Revenue was $50.8m in Q3 2020, growth of 34% over Q3 2019, c) Total Revenue was $77.3m in Q3 2020, growth of 17% over Q3 2019” I believe this stock has plenty room to run in the future.


Price Forecast:

Current Price: $162.09

One Week Target: $163.00

One Month Target: $170.00

One Year Target: $200.00


BUY AND HOLD.


Options Trade Idea:

Put Credit Spread on APPN

Sell January 15th $160.00 Put

Buy January 15th $155.00 Put

See it in Option Profits Calculator


Entry Cost: $225.00 (net credit) see details

Maximum Risk: $275.00 at a price of $155.00 at expiry

Maximum Return: $225.00 at a price of $160.00 at expiry

Breakevens at Expiry: $157.75


Looking for it to go to $167.50 this week.



Thanks for joining us!

We hope you found value and are able to make some good, money-making decisions this week. Pass this on to a friend who would also benefit!


Until next week,


Brad Mitchell

Colby McCoy

and the Optifinancial Team

DISCLAIMER

Optifinancial is not a certified financial planner/advisor nor a certified financial analyst nor an economist nor a CPA ;nor an accountant nor a lawyer. Optifinancial is not a finance professional through formal education. Optifinancial believes in and takes pride in a sense of freedom, satisfaction, fulfillment and empowerment of money. The contents on this site/letter/email are for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Optifinancial can’t promise that the information shared on our posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using our content, you agree to hold Optfinancial or any constituents related to Optifinancial harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information provided through our site, website, social media and newsletter.


PRIVACY POLICY

Optifinancial does not collect information about you other than (1) what you personally provide if you submit a comment (your email will not be published) or sign up for our newsletter updates and (2) what’s available through normal server logs and Google Analytics. Optifinancial won’t sell or disclose your information to others unless we have received prior written agreement from you (e.g., you agreed to let me share your comment on a post with other readers).

17350 State Highway 249

Ste 220 #3942

Houston, Texas 77064

brad@optifinancialnews.com

(469) 316-3188



18 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All